Africa poses an opportunity for IS

EPA A hotel worker collects sunbed mattresses after the terrorist attack in al-Sousse, a tourist destination 140km south of Tunis,Tunisia. Islamic State wants Tunisia destabilised as a democracy, says the writer. Photo: ANDREAS GEBERT

Islamic State has declared its intent to expand across Africa and is targeting youth, doctors, lawyers and engineers, writes Shannon Ebrahim.

Africa is the new Syria. As Islamic State metastasises across the continent, just as cancer spreads from its original location, Egypt, Kenya and even South Africa are not immune. In order for us not to be caught on the back foot, we need to employ a full-spectrum response before our resorts are scenes of carnage.

Islamic State has declared its intent to expand its presence across Africa, focusing for now on Libya, Tunisia, Algeria, Egypt and West Africa. While those five nodes will experience the violence exhibited in this week's spate of terrorist attacks, the group is stepping up its recruitment in southern Africa.

In May, Turkish authorities apprehended 22 South Africans en route to join Islamic State, deporting them back home – most to Roshnee, south of Joburg. A few of these youngsters are intent on joining the caliphate. According to a senior Gauteng government official, a young man in the deported Roshnee group has threatened his father, saying: "If my Isis commander tells me to kill you, I will do it, as you continue to live in a land of infidels."

This is the extent of Islamic State's brainwashing, and the tip of the iceberg.

South Africa has a Muslim population of more than 700 000, which is largely politicised and follows issues in the Middle East closely. According to Maulana Bam, secretary-general of the Jamiatul Ulama: "There is a desire to do something meaningful and to change the world; this is what pushes South African Muslims to challenge the status quo."

South Africans continue to join Islamic State, but the number is less important than the potential for recruitment. The cliché that Islamic State recruits are poor, uneducated and badly integrated is rarely true. Islamic State is targeting doctors, lawyers and engineers in South Africa, as well as young people. We only have to look at Australia, which has become the largest per capita contributor of foreign fighters to Islamic State, with more than 300 recruits having joined. South Africa may even have surpassed this number. It is difficult to calculate precise numbers, given that entire families have settled their debts and suddenly "relocated".

The UN stated that over the past six months there has been a tenfold increase in the number of foreign fighters joining Islamic State, reaching an estimated 25 000. According to The New York Times, France is estimated to have more than 1 200 foreign fighters in Islamic State's ranks – twice as many as those coming from the UK or Pakistan, and even more than Turkey. Saudi Arabia has among the highest number of recruits, with 2 500.

Islamic State supporters are encouraged to carry out lone-wolf attacks and "erupt volcanoes of jihad everywhere". Islamic State has called for recruits to turn "Ramadaan into a time of calamity for the infidels". Its leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, predicted the holy month would be a bloody one, suggesting that if recruits carried out attacks during Ramadaan, they were 10 times more likely to be accepted into paradise.

Heeding this call, followers launched the triple terrorist attacks on three different continents on June 26. The attacks were not necessarily centrally co-ordinated, but formed part of Islamic State's goals – to show its members it has retained its ability to strike in Tunisia, that it has brought global jihad closer to Europe and that it will continue to strike the "temples of the apostates", in reference to Shia mosques across the Gulf.

It is not only the Shia that Islamic State is targeting but the Sunni monarchies of the Gulf states as they seek to discredit the monarchies and outdo the Wahhabis as the true defenders of the faith. Sending a Saudi national to carry out the bombing of the Shia mosque in Kuwait was part of sending a message to the House of Saud that Islamic State can easily recruit and dispatch young Saudis to carry out attacks in the Gulf.

Since November last year, Baghdadi has called for Muslims to rise up against Saudi Arabia's ruling family. While the Saudi monarchy will remain in Islamic State's crosshairs, Libya, Egypt, Tunisia and, increasingly, Kenya are being targeted. Libya has been viewed as Islamic State's most notable franchise, with three affiliate groups in the west, east and south.

The strategic significance of Libya is not lost on Islamic State, which considers it the gateway to Europe. It wants Tunisia destabilised as democracy must not be seen to be taking root in an Arab country. The more chaos is created, the more Islamic State hopes to attract supporters. More than 3 000 Tunisians have joined the group.

As for Kenya, some claim it could overtake Syria as the new jihadist destination. It is easier for would-be jihadists to get into Kenya, given the tougher anti-terrorism measures across Europe. A growing number of white jihadists have been spotted in Lamu, Kenya. Africa is a big opportunity for Islamic State. Herein lies our challenge.

* Shannon Ebrahim is Independent Media's foreign editor.

Independent Foreign Servce

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